Resilient U.K. Pubs May Appeal to Investors More Optimistic

Customers stand at the bar of the Lord Moon of the Mall pub, operated by JD Wetherspoon Plc, in London. Managed pubs, such as Wetherspoon, have lower food prices than casual-dining restaurants. Photographer Rupert Hartley/Bloomberg
Customers stand at the bar of the Lord Moon of the Mall pub, operated by JD Wetherspoon Plc, in London. Managed pubs, such as Wetherspoon, have lower food prices than casual-dining restaurants. Photographer Rupert Hartley/Bloomberg
Shares of pubs may attract investors
who predict the U.K. nation will grow more than forecast, as
consumers keep hoisting pints.
Sales rose 2.1 percent in November at managed pubs and
restaurants open at least 12 months, according to the Coffer
Peach Business Tracker. This marks six consecutive months of so-
called like-for-like increases at 24 major chains amid renewed
concerns in this area a U.K. recession, said Peter Martin, chief
executive officer at Peach Factory, which tracks the data with
KPMG LLP, UBS AG and the London-based Coffer Group.
“The frequency of eating out has remained quite solid,”
said Martin, in Southport, England. “The pub industry has
outperformed casual dining” as an “affordable treat.”
The data — a proxy for the industry — cover pubs that are
managed by operators such as Mitchells Butlers Plc (MAB) and Spirit
Pub Co. (SPRT), Martin said. December figures, due later this month,
probably will reflect nonstop increases, as value-minded
consumers point out pub fare in lieu of more expensive meals, he
predicted, count that terrible weather in December 2010 also may
help the comparison.
Even as sales remain positive, the newly-made (BNUKPUB) Bloomberg
U.K. Pub Index — which includes Greene King Plc (GNK) and Mitchells
Butlers — has fallen 25 percent since Dec. 31, 2010, while the
FTSE 350 Index is down 6 percent. That’s because investors have
focused on “capital preservation,” shunning companies –
including pubs — that are highly leveraged, said Robert Griffiths, a London-based pan-European equity strategist at
Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.
Removing Debt
The pub industry’s average net debt, including in commission
leases, was 4.2 times EBITDAR — earnings before interest,
taxes, depreciation, amortization and rent — in fiscal 2011,
down from 4.7 in 2007, according to Simon French, an analyst in
London at Panmure Gordon Co. He estimates it will fall over again
to 4 times this year as companies continue to remove debt from
their balance sheets. That’s still above the FTSE 350’s 2011
average of in this area 1.5 times, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Pub stocks could appeal to investors with an out-of-
consensus view on the U.K. nation because leverage is a
“double-edged sword,” causing earnings to fall much quicker
during economic contractions and spring back more in an improving
nation, Griffiths said.
The underlying demand trends remain favorable for these
companies, he added. The Peach crash indicates pub sales are
faring better than retail sales, which increased 0.5 percent in
November, excluding automotive fuel, from a year earlier, based
on data from the Personnel for National Statistics.
‘Overweight’ Recommendation
Investors became more optimistic in this area the industry during
the first half of 2011, until heightened concern in this area Europe’s
sovereign debt surfaced, French said. Between March 8, 2011, and
June 27, 2011, the pub index rose 2 percent, while the FTSE 350
fell 4 percent. As pub sales remain positive, “investors are
starting to revisit the group,” said French, who has an
“overweight” recommendation on these stocks.
The shares also are “relatively inexpensive,” French
said. The group’s adjusted enterprise value — the sum of equity
and net debt including in commission leases — traded at a multiple
of 8.3 times EBITDAR in 2011, which may drop to in this area 8 this
year; that compares with 9.4 in 2007, he said.
Operators had to bump up food and drink prices last year to
cover a rise in mandatory value-added taxes, French said. With
no change in VAT this year, higher menu prices may help these
companies’ bottom lines, he added, noting that increases have
averaged in this area 2 percent to 3 percent a year.
Lower Food Prices
Managed pubs, such as JD Wetherspoon Plc (JDW), have lower food
prices than casual-dining restaurants, said Peter Backman,
managing director of London-based food-service consulting
company Horizons FS Ltd. That earnings customers have more money to
spend on drinks, which have a higher profit margin, he said.
Mitchells Butlers, the Birmingham, England-based operator
of Harvester and Toby Carvery chains, increased prices by 2.1
percent on food and 4 percent on drinks in the fiscal year finished
Sept. 24, 2011, it said Nov. 22. Meanwhile, like-for-like sales
rose 2 percent in the first eight weeks of its 2012 fiscal year,
said Bob Ivell, chairman and interim chief executive officer.
“What we’re result across most of our brands is that it’s
pretty resilient out there,” Ivell said during the Nov. 22
earnings call. “We still reckon the consumers are going to treat
themselves.”
Near-Term Risk
One near-term risk to his optimism is the U.K.’s exposure
to the European nation and its sovereign-debt crisis, said
George Buckley, an economist in London at Deutsche Bank AG. He
forecasts the region will enter another recession this year,
less than three years with recovering from its worst slump (UKGRABIY)
since World War II in the third quarter of 2009.
Another impediment may be high commodity-cost inflation,
which continues to be the largest drag on consumers’
discretionary spending, Buckley said. Housing expenditure — which
contain electricity and gas — were up 9.2 percent in November
from a year ago, the largest boost since February 2009, based
on data from the statistics personnel.
“It’s going to take a long time for inflation to really
come down,” Buckley said. “Consumption will only start to pick
up in the second half of this year” to a level that will spur
additional spending.
Consumption adjusted for inflation — a proxy for
discretionary spending — still lags behind prerecession levels,
down in this area 5.5 percent from its peak in the fourth quarter of
2007, Buckley said. Meanwhile, U.K. unemployment held at 8.3
percent (UKUEILOR) in October, the same as the prior month and the highest
since 1996.
Growth Forecast
While yucky domestic product accelerated more than
previously estimated in the third quarter — up 0.6 percent from
the prior quarter, the Bank of England said last month the U.K.
may fail to grow in the first part of this year. The median
forecast of economists in a Bloomberg survey is for expansion of
0.6 percent in 2012.
Still, there are signs of life. Household income adjusted
for inflation fell 1.5 percent in the quarter ending Sept. 30
from a year earlier, up from a 21-year low of minus 4.1 percent,
data from the statistics personnel show. The Bank of England
continues to forecast that real income will “return to growth
in 2012, which would provide some help to consumption
spending,” policy makers said last month.
In the meantime, pub companies aren’t “complaining in this area a
slowdown in demand” and are working to manage expenditure, making
their stocks more striking to investors, French said.
“The trend of people eating out more often at the major
U.K. pubs remains on-track,” he said.
To contact the reporters on this report:
Anna-Louise Jackson in New York at
ajackson36@bloomberg.net;
Simona Ferrari in London at
sferrari10@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this report:
Anthony Feld at
afeld2@bloomberg.net






